Top 8 3rd Place Qualifications
To really understand the significance of this match day, we need to understand the newest rules for this 48 team World Cup. This year the FIFA World Cup added 16 teams to go from 32 to 48 countries fighting for this incredible trophy. Because of this the way the tournament works changed a little. FIFA had to add a new stage, the Round of 32.
This also changed the way qualification worked. Usually only the top two teams of each group could advance to the next stage. This year the top two teams automatically advance to the Round of 32, and the Top 8 3rd place teams also advance.
There are 12 groups in total, so this means that 8 out of 12 teams that reached 3rd place advance. But they have their own standings that does not relate to their group. Going into the final Group Stage match day, this is what those standings look like:
| # | Team | PL | W | D | L | +/- | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sweden | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7-7 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 |  Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 |  Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5-6 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 |  Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8-6 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3-3 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Croatia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 |  South Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2-3 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Algeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Scotland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1-4 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | -1 | 2 |
| 12 |  Congo DR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | -1 | 1 |
When you look at this table, it almost feels impossible for South Korea to keep that 8th place spot with both DR Congo and Algeria playing games against opponents that they could very well either tie or win against. That is all they would need to knock out South Korea and take that spot.
This is why going into this final match day things are so nerve breaking for some teams, and why they absolutely must win.
Group L
Croatia Vs Ghana
Croatia
Ghana
Croatia: Need to win to secure 2nd Place Qualification. Tie will still likely see them qualify. With a loss they would need Algeria to lose and DR Congo to either tie or lose to qualify.
Ghana: Win would guarantee Qualification in 1st place. A tie or loss and they can still qualify either 2nd or through Top 8 3rd Place teams.
Croatia and Ghana both are in an interesting spot. Ghana likely goes through no matter what. If they win or tie they have a chance to go 1st if England lose, if England win then they’d still get 2nd, and if they lose they’d still qualify through the Top 8 3rd place teams.
Croatia is the team with more to lose here. A loss could potentially mark an early exit for them in the tournament. At the moment they have a -1 goal difference with 3 points which is barely keeping them in Top 8 in 7th place. If they lose by more than 3 goals then they would drop all the way to 10th place eliminating them from the World Cup.
Croatia has Mordric who has proved time and time again that he can contribute in crucial moments, but something I feel they lack from other years is a player like Rakitic that can really create a defining moment out of nowhere.
Prediction: Ghana is going to come into this match looking to hold their line and stay physical, while Croatia is going to show more desperation in their attack. Ultimately leading to a 3-1 Ghana win due to the counter efficiency of Semenyo, Williams, and Ayew.
Panama Vs England
Panama
England
Panama: Would need to beat England by at least 3 goals, for Algeria to lose, and DR Congo to tie or lose.
England: Qualified – Playing for 1st.
England need to bring it home and solidify that first place with a win here. On paper they have better players in almost every single position when compared to Panama, but something England always does is get in their own way.
Expectations are high and they have failed to live up to them for years now, so pressure is immense on these players. It causes them to make errors and even miss critical shots to win games. Honestly, Panama would need to give 200% in order to qualify.
They would need other beat England by at least 3 goals, and then they’d still need to wait and see what happens in the Algeria and DR Congo matches. Coming into this match the only thing they should keep in their minds in winning so it’s likely they’ll leave themselves open to counters.
Prediction: Panama are coming in hot due to their goal necessity and England will likely capitalize on the openings they leave leading to a 4-1 England win.
Current Standings:
Standings
›| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  England | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 2 |  Ghana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Croatia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Panama | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Group K
Colombia vs Portugal
Colombia
Portugal
Colombia: Qualified for Round of 32 – Playing for 1st, need either a win or tie.
Portugal: Win gets them 1st place qualification. Tie gets them 2nd place qualification. If they lose and DR Congo wins by 5+ goals they qualify through 3rd place.
THIS IS THE MATCH OF THE DAY. Colombia vs Portugal where both are playing for first place. Both incredibly competitive teams that want to carry their win streak into the knock out rounds.
Colombia has shown that their physicality and technicality are a class above and have comfortably won their first team games. They were even able to keep the incredibly physical DR Congo to a 1-0 score. With players like Luis Diaz and Muñoz playing incredibly well, I feel Colombia is coming into this match looking strong.
Portugal had a shaky start against DR Congo but I feel a lot of people don’t take into account how physical DR Congo is and how well they play defensively. Portugal has on paper, one of the best teams in the World Cup. Players like Nuno Mendes, Vitinha, Neves, Cancelo, and Bruno Fernandes are all arguably in the top five of their position. Not to mention they have the presence of Ronaldo who despite not playing like his Balon D’Or days, can still put staggering pressure on the other team.
Prediction: Portugal need to win this to cement themselves as a real favorite for this tournament so I think they play out of their mind and come out winning 2-1.
DR Congo VS Uzbekistan
Congo DR
Uzbekistan
DR Congo: Need to win to qualify. Tie or Loss and they are eliminated.
Uzbekistan: Need to win by at least 7 goals to even consider qualification.
Honestly, it’s hard to see DR Congo losing this. They are by far more physical and Uzbekistan has shown that they can’t keep up with constant pressure. We will likely see a new side to DR Congo today, one that is a lot more offensive minded. This is a game that they must win no matter what, so it’s really all or nothing here.
Uzbekistan is essentially eliminated but they’ll likely try and show out with one final performance to leave with their head held high.
Prediction: DR Congo likely runs away with this one winning 2-1 and giving themselves a fair shot at qualifying for the Round of 32.
Current Standings:
Standings
›| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colombia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 |  Portugal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 4 |
| 3 | DR Congo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 |  Uzbekistan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Group J
Algeria Vs Austria
Algeria
Austria
Algeria: Need a win or tie qualify.
Austria: Need a win or tie to qualify.
Both teams here will need a win to qualify for the Round of 32 or if they tie then they’ll likely both go through with Austria taking 2nd and Algeria taking one of the Top 8 spots for 3rd place.
Algeria has underperformed this tournament, and they have not looked great so honestly it would not surprise us if Austria managed to cement themselves at 2nd place with a win.
Overall this is the final group to play on the last match day of the Group Stages which means the outcome is going to determine the faith of a lot of teams waiting in for their Round of 32 match up or waiting to see if they can qualify with their 3rd place standing.
Predictions: Austria takes the win 2-0 over Algeria.
Jordan vs Argentina
Jordan
Argentina
Argentina: Already qualified as 1st in group. No result will change even if they tie in points with Austria or Algeria due to head to head tiebreakers.
Jordan: Eliminated from tournament already.
Argentina has already qualified as first place and dominantly beat both teams that Jordan has lost to. This could essentially be a match where Messi just adds to his already impressive goal tally for the World Cup and further cement himself as the All Time Top Scorer of the FIFA World Cup.
I don’t see this ending in anything but an Argentina win. They are the current champions and have completely dominated their first two games. They are one of four teams that have not had a goal scored on them alongside Mexico, Spain, and Ghana.
Prediction: We will likely see another Messi brace or even hat-trick with Argentina confidently winning 4-0.
Current Standings:
Standings
›| Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Argentina | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 |  Austria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Algeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Jordan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
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